Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $58,767$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,901.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(56,901.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,548$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,223.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,223.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,171$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $283,079$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,829.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(281,829.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,987$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,073.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(38,073.6\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $241,873$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,660$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{230,119.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(230,119.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,133$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,202.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,202.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,151$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $234,013$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,947.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(227,947.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,689$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,615.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(32,615.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,429$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,883$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,458.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 63.2)}}\) (asimptote \(42,458.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,562$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(512 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,483.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,483.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,321$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $189,569$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,494.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(182,494.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,068$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,985.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(27,985.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90,407$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,148$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,438.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,438.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,009$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,873.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,873.1\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,959$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,142$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,670.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,670.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,664$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(220 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,625.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,625.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $780$ on 2020-06-04