Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,767$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,901.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(56,901.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,548$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,223.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,223.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,171$ on 2020-06-04

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $283,079$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,829.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(281,829.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,987$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,073.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(38,073.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $241,873$ on 2020-06-04

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,660$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{230,119.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(230,119.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,133$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,202.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,202.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,151$ on 2020-06-04

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,013$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,947.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(227,947.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,689$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,615.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(32,615.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,429$ on 2020-06-04

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,883$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,458.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 63.2)}}\) (asimptote \(42,458.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,562$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(512 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,483.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,483.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,321$ on 2020-06-04

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $189,569$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,494.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(182,494.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,068$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,985.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(27,985.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,407$ on 2020-06-04

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,148$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,438.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,438.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,009$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,873.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,873.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,959$ on 2020-06-04

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,142$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,670.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,670.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,664$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(220 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,625.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,625.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $780$ on 2020-06-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 99%
Croatia recovered 97%
Austria recovered 96%
Malta recovered 89%
Germany recovered 89%
Estonia recovered 89%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Andorra recovered 88%
Denmark recovered 84%
Lithuania recovered 67%
Italy recovered 65%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 52%
San Marino recovered 52%
Serbia recovered 43%
Romania recovered 39%
Bulgaria recovered 26%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,027$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,874.6}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,874.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(29.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-06-04

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,203.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,203.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(18.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-06-04

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,805$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,900.2}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,900.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(161 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{642.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(642.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $418$ on 2020-06-04

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $622$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(139 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{582.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(582.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-04

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-06-04